![]() ![]() will see updated formulations of the vaccine being developed that target more recent omicron strains. Some of those mutations are in areas that relate to the spike protein and could allow the virus to bind onto cells more efficiently, Binnicker said.Īnother concern is that the genetic tweaks may make it easier for the virus to skirt past antibodies - protective proteins made by the body in response to a vaccine or infection from an earlier variant.īut experts say vaccines and boosters are still the best defense against severe COVID-19. This can help us identify emerging hotspots, track transmission and enable nimble-footed decision-making and tailored interventions.Fueling experts’ concerns are a large number of mutations separating this new variant from omicron predecessors. Setting up a genomic surveillance system and consistently testing 5% of the positive samples is an expensive but important tool in the journey ahead. In all likelihood, this is the current Indian scenario: a higher overall death count despite the variants being no more fatal in relative terms. But with a variant that is 50% more transmissible, though no more deadly, there would be 122,000 cases after a month, leading to 976 deaths. With a variant that is 50% more deadly, those 16,000 cases would result in 192 deaths. If the infection fatality rate is 0.8%, as it was in England at the end of the first wave of infections, it would mean 128 deaths. After a month, 16,000 people would have been infected. suppose 10,000 people are infected in a city and each infects 1.1 other people on average, the low end for the estimated rate of infection in England. Why higher transmissibility is so concerningĪccording to epidemiologist Adam Kucharski at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the conundrum is this: At a recent webinar, Indian experts observed the “Indian strain” (B.1.617) is similarly transmissible to the UK variant, but there is little evidence so far of it being more lethal than the original virus. ![]() The UK variant (B.1.1.7) is at least 30% more transmissible. Both ability to replicate and transmit, and a better ability to escape our immune systems, led to the variants establishing themselves as dominant strains across geographies and populations. That day, the states of Maharashtra and Punjab accounted for 62.5% and 4.5% of 40,715 new cases, respectively.Īs India's COVID crisis worsens, leaders play the blame game while the poor suffer once againĪcross the world, several key mutant strains have emerged thanks to ongoing virus replication in humans. The head of the Indian Council of Medical Research said there was no reason for panic because mutations are sporadic, and not significant. these have not been detected in numbers sufficient to either establish or direct relationship or explain the rapid increase in cases in some states. Many experts in India now think this is driving the surge.Įven as India’s health ministry announced the detection of the mutants on March 24, it went on to add: Idrees Mohammed/AAPī.1.617, or what has been called the “Indian double mutation”, has drawn attention because it contains two mutations (known as E484Q and L452R) that have been linked to increased transmissibility and an ability to evade our immune system. The health system and crematoria are quickly becoming overwhelmed. But the government dropped its guard too soon ![]() India's staggering COVID crisis could have been avoided. An estimated 60-70% of the families in these districts have relatives abroad, mostly in the UK or Canada, and a high volume of travel to and from these countries. Significantly, the most affected districts are from Punjab’s Doaba region, known as the NRI (non-resident Indian) belt. One of the advisers to the Punjab government confirmed that more than 80% of the cases were attributed to the UK variant. The current second wave started in the northwestern state of Punjab in the first half of February and has not yet plateaued. What's the new coronavirus variant in India and how should it change their COVID response? In the final week of December, India detected six cases of the UK variant (B.1.1.7) among international travellers. This means of every 1,000 cases, the UK has sequenced 79.5, the US 8.59, and India only 0.0552. INSACOG has so far tested 15,133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. ![]() India has been testing about 1% altogether. The United Kingdom is currently testing about 8% of its positive samples and the United States about 4%. Lack of masks and distancing alone don’t explain the huge increase in cases in India. ![]()
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